Weekend Reading – Gold is golden! Will it last?
Well hello…
Welcome to some new Weekend Reading that shares some gold news (including what I do or do not own when it comes to gold) and other recent weekend reading finds. 🙂
Before my take on gold, I recently wrote about this:
My wife retired last week!
and…
We’ve reached a new cashflow from the portfolio all-time-high:
Of important note, if you ever want to learn how much cashflow from your portfolio you can generate leading into or during retirement, contact me here. I offer discounts on my retirement income projection services to all My Own Advisor readers and my fee structure to generate your personalized reports is FAR LESS than almost all fee-based planners around charge. I maintain my very low fees for DIY investors because I can and want to. 🙂
Weekend Reading – Gold is golden! Will it last?
Image source: Pexels.
It was interesting to go back and read what J.P. Morgan thought about the rise of gold in the summer of 2025.
“Earlier this year, we examined the structural shift in gold’s demand and geopolitically influenced pricing drivers fueling its rebasing higher, ultimately posing the question if $4,000/oz is in the cards,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
Well that escalated quickly!?
Well, that prediction was both wrong and right. $4,000+ /oz. gold is now here and some analysts think it could hit $5,000/oz. sooner than later.
Gold’s meteoric rise in 2025 has been related to the following:
- Investor uncertainty and related demand for some safety – needless to say what is going on with U.S. politics has fueled investors to add this safe haven to their portfolios due to economic uncertainty, stock market volatility, and all these unnecessary geopolitical tensions.
- A weaker U.S. dollar combined with more central bank purchases – enough said. I think the U.S. is unlikely to dig out of their devalued currency status near-term. I would also predict that the U.S. dollar’s position as the world’s major reserve currency is under serious threat – the dollar’s share of global reserves has declined gradually over the past 20 years as central banks have diversified their holdings…and I see this continuing. When it comes to emerging markets, central banks are increasing their gold reserves, driven more by – you guessed it – more geopolitical factors than by speculative price.
An interesting irony you might want to know about is this when it comes to gold: Canada doesn’t own any.
Despite being a HUGE gold producer, see chart and related article here, again, our government doesn’t own any.
As such, we’re the only G7 country with an empty vault!
For the record, I also don’t own any. And, I have no intention of buying any gold near-term either.
In my post this summer, I told readers what we own and why – a portfolio that produces thousands of dollars of income per month, and growing, for upcoming retirement spending.
Other than the odd (potential) purchase of more Canadian stocks or more existing ETFs we have in our portfolio, I’m not likely to buy anything between now and the end of 2025 – although I could always change my mind. 🙂
What say you? Do you own any gold or specific gold producers as stocks or gold ETFs?
More Weekend Reading – Beyond gold is golden!
It has a pleasure to join Nelson and Bob on the DIY Wealth Canada Podcast recently. Have a listen and some fun related to our conservation given Nelson is an early retiree living off his portfolio, Bob is an aspiring retiree in the coming years and I plan to retire in early 2026.
Some level of caution from Morningstar on not relying solely on dividend stocks to fund your retirement income needs.
From the interview with Christine Benz:
Benz: Yeah, I love dividend growth strategies. So there are a couple of exchange-traded funds that are kind of my go-tos for dividend growth. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation VIG is a fund that I really like quite a bit. And one thing people will see when they look at these dividend growth strategies is typically you’re not getting a dividend yield that is much higher than the broad market. So, so much for the bird in the hand. But you are getting a very stable, high-quality basket of companies that does tend to be less volatile.
So I tend to like the dividend growers. That strategy appeals to me, but even there I would augment it with some non-dividend-growers, some non-dividend-payers, because we have market environments, and I think we’re living through one currently, where the non-dividend-payers perform very, very well. So the large-cap tech names, for example, would tend to be underrepresented in a dividend growth strategy. So I would hold kind of a total market index, which is giving me exposure to those types of companies, alongside the dividend strategy.
Benz acknowledges the bird-in-hand benefits that dividend stocks can deliver to retirees – and I will be one of them in the coming months. Yet I also feel growth is important too which is why we own a bunch of low-cost ETF XAW for global ex-Canada growth. I’ve been adding to XAW since 2016 and will continue to do so!
I enjoyed this article by Peter Hodson, CFA, founder of 5i Research Inc. in the Financial Post: why is the stock market doing so well despite so many world problems?
Here are some of his key points in case the Post paywall catches you:
- Investors have been trained to buy the market dips. (You and I should too.)
- Earnings (in stocks) are generally good.
- Interest rates are low now and might go lower, so stocks are looking more and more appealing to many for income needs.
- Related to #3, why count on interest payments from debt-burdened governments when there are literally as per Peter “…hundreds of companies in North America that have rock solid assets — assets you can touch and see.”
- Many investors, including younger investors, have adapted a ‘passive investment’ mantra. “There is a whole movement of young people who think working for someone else for 40 years is a mug’s game, and the only way to break that cycle is to invest. Honestly, they’re not wrong.”
And more random: great quote from actor Jim Carrey I read this week:
“You can fail at what you don’t want, so you might as well take a chance on doing what you love?”
Have a great weekend everyone and thanks for reading and engaging.
Mark
Congrats to your wife on her retirement!. Next, it will be you!!! Bet you can’t wait for it!!
Gold is all the rage now given the YTD high return of >50%. Some analysts believe it is headed for even higher! I personally invest in some gold ETF’s (been good so far). Recently, I invested in silver ETF’s too. Not bad so far. Those precious metals are used in many applications and the demand will continue to go up. It’s a safe haven and act as a hedge against uncertainties. Time will tell if I made the right decisions.
Have a good weekend, Mark. Good luck to all investors.
Nice call on gold and silver, Ken!
Are you trimming or just going to hold on? 🙂
Up 50% is HUGE.
I might buy some silver myself, an ETF. We shall see. Mainly a common stock + low-cost ETF guy here as you know. That approach helped my wife retire so trying to not fix what isn’t broken per se.
Continued success!
Mark
In fact, I added more recently!!! But, today, gold and other precious metals crashed down to earth!!! Rare earth minerals are getting increasing attention nowadays as they are critical elements used in many applications ranging from EV’s, defence industry, AI, etc, etc. This is a roller coaster ride!!!
Wish you Mark and everyone, continued success as well.
I would agree…more minerals and materials needed. Just a matter of time before those prices move much higher. Supply drives demand and vice-versa.
Continued success and stay in touch!
Mark
Looks like XIC has ~9% in gold/precious metals companies. Which means that I am overweighing gold, albeit indirectly.
That’s fair. XIC does have gold producers.
I don’t own any.
At this time, about 27 CDN stocks and lots of XAW for global diversification for equities. Small bit of HEQT in my LIRA also for lazy investing. The plan near-term is to live off cash/cash equivalents, let dividends and distributions build up again for a year or so, and then live off dividends and distributions again in 2028…likely starting to trim some stocks/equities around them to discretionary travel.
We shall see how it all goes without any gold. 🙂
Mark
Hi Mark: Gold is worth squat. You can’t eat it and if you sell it then it is gone. All while you had it, it sat brewing in your safety deposit box and you weren’t getting a thing for it. It is like having a diamond in your safety deposit box. Nice to have but doesn’t do anything for you. On a personal note Mark how much do you think you will have when you decide to retire. If you think $70k then can you live on it and if you can then remember that sum is not stagnant. As soon as you withdraw some other funds will replace them and each year those funds will be increased. This just for interest sake but when I was laid off (not fired) in Jan./ ’92 I had a net worth of $400560.00 and by the end of the year I was worth $535250.00. I golfed, bowled, curled and lived and the base cost increased and did I stop investing. No. I have continued to invest when prices are right All I ask is to see what you started with and what you have now. That progression may not be the same when you start retirement but if you live below your means and keep investing the snowball should continue and you will for sure be on easy street in another 20 years. Believe me 20 years goes by fast. My dad past away in 2005 and that is 20 years and I catch myself thinking were did the time go. Well I should be off to bed as I sit here with a nasty cold and shivering a bit.
Q: “On a personal note Mark how much do you think you will have when you decide to retire.”
Well, I don’t disclose our net worth but let’s just say that I think $2M+ invested without any debt should be fine for us long-term.
That level of investment should deliver at least $70k per year in dividends and distributions.
Our spending plans are here:
https://www.myownadvisor.ca/financial-independence-budget/
I will revise that post in the spring of 2026 when we stop working/I stop working.
In Jan. 1992, $400k is a nice net worth to start for you. Would be much higher, inflation adjusted today.
We do expect to live within our means. Our goal in the early retirement years is to certainly have a fulfilled life, with exercise, travel, volunteer work and other hobbies to pursue – early retirement whereby our portfolio starts to cover all our expenses. Almost there. Even then, at 5% annualized returns (dividends + growth) our portfolio is going to generate more than our expenses so I will want to sell equities over time since to you point, if I don’t, then the snowball just continues. Money saved is meant to be enjoyed while we are alive.
I also want to spend more time with my father and mother while they are still on green earth. Just saw them this weekend in fact. 🙂
Thanks for your comment,
Mark
Not a gold bug per se, hold no physical gold but i do invest in jr resource stocks and several gold producer ( Barrick at $13 USD) Bit of a div there, KNT was owned by Barrick…sold for $2M back when B almost went bankrupt, I paid 80 cents for my shares, they recently hit $21….2600% return. Mau from 60 cents to $7 under 2 yrs…1166% and a bunch more gold explorers and a couple Royalty Co’s EMPR & ??
I attend PDAC and pay for investment advice…heard this about gold…Gold won’t make you rich but will prevent you from becoming poor…can’t say that about stocks, crypto, real estate etc.
Now my challenge is, Cinderella…enjoy the party but never take your eye off the clock. Take gold profits and put into div paying stocks/ETF’s. Bot BNS @ $55 CDN…think was almost 8% div then but under 5% now…but what to buy? Nibbled on some HDIV & ECHI, have some SRR (oil/gas royalty pays a monthly div around 10% based on my purchase price) Portfolio is sitting on 15% cash ‘cuz everything is expensive and might get more expensive
Ya, not a gold guy here either. I don’t own any.
Very fair: “…Gold won’t make you rich but will prevent you from becoming poor.”
I believe you can say that about cash/cash equivalents, money market funds, GICs, etc. but yes, agreed, can’t always say that about stocks, crypto, real estate etc. You need a long holding period for any of that stuff and even then, crypto is very speculative.
That was a good buy on BNS given where BNS is now.
I don’t mind your call on higher cash given market highs and things getting more expensive – nice to have money ready to spend vs. trying to time the market.
It will be interesting to see where things go for the rest of 2025…no idea myself but likely downhill from here is my guess.
Mark
I invested in Franco Nevada a few years ago since I believed I needed some gold exposure in my portfolio. It also paid a reasonable dividend which I also appreciated. It has been a fantastic winner since the purchase and now I have to decide whether to hold or sell. It is in my RRIF.
Absolutely. You’ve done very, very well with FNV year to date.
FNV is still trailing the index I like in Canada (XIU) over a 5-year run but that can happen with any individual stock – they can’t all be winners including those in my own portfolio but a basket of stocks in Canada from different sectors is likely to do very well over time.
Huummm, in RRIF, well, if you need the $$$ for spending can always trim a bit and keep the rest for growth.
I personally like all near-term RRSP/RRIF money to spend in the next year or so in cash or cash equivalents.
I just helped out my parents with that this week.
They have RRIF $$ ready for withdrawals for early 2026 and early 2027 now. They withdraw annually. This way, they are shielded from (any) stock market calamity for at least 2 years.
Thoughts on how you manage your RRIF?
Cheers,
Mark
I, like your parents, will make my first withdrawals from my RRIF in 2026. I have enough cash and bond ETF’s to make my compulsory withdrawals for the next 3 years. I have no pension plan other than CPP so much of my retirement savings are in my RRIF.
So I do not have to sell FNV for cash to make my withdrawals in the next few years. But my dilemma is should I sell it now since gold has appreciated so much or should I hold on and sell it when the stock market suffers a significant downward correction and gold may be more valuable?
How is your crystal ball on gold Mark? (Just kidding!)
I have read your weekly newsletter for a few years and have learned many things but have not posted often. I have also recommended your newsletter to friends who are also interested in DIY investing. I want to thank you for all you contributions to DIY investors like myself.
A future topic I would like to see discussed is when does a DIY investor seek professional help in managing their portfolio? I have managed my and my wife’s and my son’s portfolio for a few decades. At some point I will not want or be able to manage it any more. Since my wife has no interest in managing our portfolio, who should I recommend she contact for portfolio management?
Thanks!
Gosh, I wish I had the magic / crystal ball, Roger!
Good that you don’t have to sell near-term…to fund your needs. Smart in fact. 🙂
You are very kind, Roger. It’s nice to run the site engage with other DIY investors where I can. I’ve learned a lot from others, myself, and just happy to pay it all forward per se via the site. As you can see, it’s a small labour of love…
That’s a great topic and I should unpack that more. I did write about it a bit previously…
https://www.myownadvisor.ca/should-you-become-a-diy-investor/
I can certainly revisit that. Elements of that article were written a long time ago…
I am likely to recommend some wealth management services for my wife in case something happens to me. I am very likely to tackle these subjects much more when I have the time / not working as to think these things through more, which is necessary, and post them:
https://www.firstontario.com/investments/investment-insights/reitrement-planning/estate-planning-05-14-2025
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/canada/financial-consumer-agency/migration/eng/resources/educationalprograms/ft-of/documents/financial-planning-4-9-eng.pdf
I would suggest you consider some wealth management practice/firm for someone to take over your wishes. I can’t recommend of course since I would need to do lots of interviews with them myself but it’s something I’m considering in a worse-case or eventual-case scenario.
Ideally, my wife learns a bit of what I know and our assets are simplified over time whereby we don’t have too much complexity to manage over than CPP, OAS, my pension and likely some large TFSA assets in our 80s+ but who knows what happens before then. Need to be prepared.
Welcome your thoughts back,
Mark
No physical gold or silver, never understood the allure it’s practically without use, cumbersome and mostly nostalgia as far as I’m concerned. There are several alternatives to these in the modern world so it’s not a one horse race anymore.
You do need a currency hedge esp. against the USD in it’s terminal decline so I have up to 5% allotted to Gold + Crypto but it’s through covered calls (AMAX&HBIX) I do not rely on growth for either of these assets, they may or may not I’m not passionate either way. They however are high value, high volume and best of all highly volatile assets so good for generating income.
Appreciated listening to your podcast, my experience with FIWOOT is that some employers are not that open to the “part-time” path to retirement to a point where quitting was advised. I know of quite a few good folks doing just that taking their skills and experience with them in the process, imo corporate Canada seems still stuck in the fifties. So by all means have the conversation (way early is better) but manage your expectations.
I like Hodson’s statement “working for someone else for 40 years is a mug’s game” I would make that 30 years max during which your #1 priority is to work for yourself first so you can reduce that to 25 years or less.
Thanks, Ben. It will be interesting to see where gold goes from here.
Great feedback on the podcast – appreciated. I was fortunate/remain fortunate that I’m in a role at work whereby certain skills and experience is required to “get stuff done” so it was worth my time to be open, be willing to negotiate and know a bit of my worth. To be honest, my previous manager struggled with things quite a bit: he mentioned to me a few times “we can’t do that” but that was his style and he has since retired himself. With newer management in recent years, they were more like “let’s see what we can do” in making this a win-win partnership.
So, to your point, some managers in particular can’t get it but others want to get it – since they see value in keeping employees that want to stay with the organization in some capacity. Much of corporate Canada does remain “stuck” in old paradigms. That old-age thinking will not serve us well which is why I am a bit pessimistic about the future in general. Alas, I hope I am wrong as I retire myself.
Peter (Hodson) is a bright guy and I enjoy following his interviews, articles, podcasts, etc. wherever I find him. A good thinker.
Thanks for your comment. Nice to have realized my FIWOOT destination I designed 20 years ago!
Mark
Mark – good timing re: the gold discussion! Here’s an article I had JUST read in the Globe&Mail from a financial writer I respect (Ian McGugan). Subscription required: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-gold-rally-skepticism-market-watchers/
I personally have never been a big gold fan …. and will continue to stay on the sidelines (along with bitcoin!)
Ha, same. I get the gold rush of late but I also don’t need to invest in it to meet my investing goals.
So, that’s my decision. Good or bad, sticking to my plan and hope to fully retire in 5 months.
Mark
BTW – I just finished listening to your podcast with Nelson and Bob – great job as always! I’ve listened to you several times – and your messaging is always clear, consistent and interesting. Keep up the great work!
Very kind, MikeyP!
Hope to be retired in another 5 months. 🙂 Will continue to do what I can to be clear, consistent and an interesting guy. :))
Stay in touch!
Mark
The vagaries of Gold.
I experienced the last goldbug era in the 1970s. I still remember my cousin and his almost religious devotion to the glitter as it cracked US$800 in January,1980. He lost his shirt in the bust which followed … does history repeat? I don’t really know. If there is another Depression because of debt and margin borrowing for the AI “revolution” – among others – then maybe a repeat of two scenarios. In the 1930s the junior gold mining stocks did well, as well as the latter – utilities.
I recently put this to a friend who has prospered owning physical gold. Using AI generated information which may not be 100% accurate Fortis was first registered on the TSX as a holding company in 1987. Ask yourself which would you have rather owned – Fortis or Gold? The former gets all the buzz, the latter a sleeping giant.
Let’s say you bought $10,000 worth of Fortis in 1987 at CDN$4.69 (in the Fall) with its long history of sequential dividend growth and a similar amount of Gold at approx. CDN$617. Today Fortis is over $72 and if you just owned this one stock and reinvested all the dividends your capital would have grown to – get ready and remember this is AI generated so not sure of the accuracy – CDN $400,000! Even if it were half that amount it would have still been a great stable investment. Ya gotta have heat and electricity.
As for the ups and downs of Gold since Jan, 1987? CDN$95,000.
Remember to deduct all the storage fees …
Well put, Barry. Big fan of Fortis and unfortunately I didn’t buy it in my teens in 1987 but I wish I did!!
Happy to own hundreds and hundreds of shares of FTS and adding more over time via DRIPs. No gold here as per post.
With FTS, I like my heat and electricity too. 🙂
How are things?
Buying anything lately?
Cheers,
Mark
We’re sitting on a pile of cash with no intention of making any purchases in our non registered account unless there is a major downdraft. Other than that … will by more ENB in our TFSAs with our $3500 TFSA payout from BNS at the end of October. Same in Dec (ENB payout of around $5500) and come January 1st another $14000 into … you know what.
Tidy, Barry. 🙂
I’d have to double check but we pull in > $5k per year from ENB and > $3k per year from BNS as part of our portfolio.
Not as much as you but some future spending money.
LOL for the Jan. 1st TFSA purchase. Yes, I could likely guess.
Mark
I meant “Gold or Fortis? The former gets all the buzz, the latter a sleeping giant”
I gotcha, Barry. I own lots of FTS and more FTS every quarter, no gold. 🙂
Hi Mark. I have been following gold for a while and all of the pundits I listen to on Kitco believe that it is only going higher. One etf that I have bought is AMAX which is a collection of gold producing stocks that uses covered calls to produce income/dividends. Since the end of January 2025 the monthly dividend has increased 37.72% going from 0.167 to 0.23 cents per share. It now yields about 7.97% annually. The annualized gain of the etf is 74.66% with $1.74 in dividends. With the dividends reinvested it has gone up over 110% with, I hope, more gains to come. Other covered call etf’s in this sector include GLCC, GLCL and in the silver miner’s SLJY.
Rob, that’s pretty darn good. I have a few stocks up 40-50% this year but I don’t own AMAX.
What are your thoughts on silver? Going to jump just as much or higher?
Mark