Weekend Reading – Expert predictions for 2022
They say life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards. Welcome to my latest Weekend Reading edition with some expert predictions for 2022.
In this edition, at the start of a new year, I thought it would be interesting to revisit some expert predictions and see what some experts got totally wrong in the past, as we look ahead for what might happen.
First up, market bear David Rosenberg who believed while things were not very rosy in the stock market let alone our economy right now (March 2020), a recovery will occur, but you’ll have to wait for it.
Well David, that was flat-out wrong since the market quickly rebounded in late-2020 and has been essentially on a tear ever since. If you think this was an outlier like many COVID-19-related predictions, I wouldn’t blame you. So, you might also recall that Rosenberg has been very bearish on Canadian housing since 2010 though.
“It would not be out of the realm to see a correction, using nationwide average home prices as the benchmark, of at least 20 per cent.”
No, wrong. Very, very, very wrong.
Canadian home prices continue to rise – the average home price in Canada was recently pegged at $720,850 and that data is now out of date. Heck, even the average home price in the Yukon was $529,535. A 25% increase year-over-year there.
Forget housing, you might remember some bigger, bolder predictions gone totally wrong.
In a book titled “Dow 30,000 by 2008: Why It’s Different This Time,” written by Robert Zuccaro, Zuccaro was once part of a mutual fund team that achieved triple digit returns in 1998 and 1999, but his 2008 call was wildly inaccurate. Not only did the Dow not hit 30,000 (a benchmark it is still a long ways away from), but 2008 began the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and watched the Dow plummet more than 30%.
Finally, because I could go on and on….”Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki has warned of a devastating market crash coming.
“Crash and Depression coming,” the “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author said. “Gold, silver, bitcoin, real estate will crash too.”
I suspose if you keep repeating the same thing over and over, you might eventually, potentially, maybe, get it right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day!
Of course, I’ve had my own fun on the site over the years but predictions are just entertainment for me, even when I did get a few things correct.
Last year, yours truly did very well actually in the Canadian Money Forum 2021 Predictions contest 🙂
Enjoy the rest of this Weekend Reading edition including what some experts have on their 2022 predictions bingo card!
Weekend Reading – Expert predictions for 2022 and more!
Love reading and viewing the outstanding infographics from Visual Capitalist: what the experts see coming in 2022.
Congratulations to Dividend Daddy who recently crossed his crossover point for financial independence!
Speaking of financial independence, literally, I was speaking with the awesome team at Explore FI Canada about that subject and much more in this podcast.
Check it out, hear from me on this subject and much more – including what we’re doing over at Cashflows & Portfolios if you want any assistance in figuring our your financial independence number and date!
Cashflows & Portfolios – need any support with your retirement income projections?
Knowing how to save and invest wisely, to help you get the most out of your portfolio, is something we can help with. Beyond that…
If you are interested in obtaining private projections for your financial scenario, read more about our retirement projections service.
A reminder to those who have recently joined our readership and new fans of the site – our site is growing thanks to you!! As an example, a big thanks to Rob Carrick for mentioning our site and services in The Globe and Mail. From Rob:
“TODAY’S FINANCIAL TOOL
Cashflow$ & Portfolios is the name of a website built to help people learn how to reach their long-term financial goals with budget and long-term investing. Brought to you by a pair of veteran personal finance bloggers.”
This week on that site we interviewed speaker and author Sandy Yong – running a giveaway for her book The Money Master.
Rob Carrick interviewed Andrew Hallam (who has a new book out called Balance: How to Invest and Spend for Happiness, Health and Wealth) that offers some great thoughts on how to build a happier life based not just on financial matters, but also on living according to your values.
I have a couple copies of Andrew’s new book on my shelf (thanks Andrew) and I hope to have him on this site in a few weeks – stay tuned!
Passionate dividend investor Matt Poyner who runs Dividend Strategy highlighted how he personally uses the Beat the TSX (BTSX) strategy in his own portfolio.
Matt’s approach is VERY similar to mine, Matt wrote beyond his Canadian dividend paying stocks for income and growth:
“I achieve international exposure with ETFs, in particular, XAW, which is the iShares Core MSCI All Country World ex Canada ETF. I also think that the emerging markets are great long-term investments while currently being undervalued, so I hold some additional XEM, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF.
I will hold on to good companies that still pay good dividends. Generally, they have fallen off this list because of increases in their stock price, rather than a decrease in their dividend. I am still a happy owner of large stakes in Fortis (FTS), Bank of Montreal (BMO) and SunLife Insurance (SLF), for example – and may be an owner for life.
First, BTSX stocks tend to be concentrated in telecoms, utilities, energy, and financials. It makes sense to gain exposure to dividend-paying stocks in other sectors.”
A Wealth of Common Sense wondered if the Fed (Federal Reserve) is now trapped. I would say a resounding “yes” just like our Bank of Canada. Interest rates have been way too low for far too long. Our BoC lacks credibility for inaction.
John De Goey wrote about opinions and predictions on the Financial Independence Hub. I liked the ending:
“Nobody knows because we’ve never had a truly massive bear market in our careers. Your guess is as good as mine. Like I said, everyone has an opinion.”
From Cut The Crap Investing, here are some 2021 returns for ETF portfolios. Boring worked well in 2021…
Just in case you missed it…
I wrote about how to invest and combat higher inflation.
Reader question of the week (adapted slightly for the site):
Congrats on all your efforts for moving towards FI….seems like you are almost there! Many Canadians don’t have the means to max out their RRSPs or TFSAs like you. Any suggestions on how to retire if you can only max out one account? Anything you can share? Thanks very much.
You know, very fair question. I hope to do more case studies like some of these ones below.
Have a read and let me know in particular what you are looking for. If need be, I’ll create another case study!
Thanks for your readership.
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As always, check out my Deals page.
Have a great weekend!