Weekend Reading – Are we headed for a recession edition

Weekend Reading – Are we headed for a recession edition

Welcome to a new Weekend Reading post: the are we headed for a recession edition…

You can check out other recent posts below:

Recently, I wrote if there was ever a reason to own some BTSX stocks of late, this was it:

Beat the TSX (BTSX) shines

And, I launched another book giveaway when I reviewed The Rule of 30.

The Rule of 30 – Review

Are we headed for a recession?

Yup, maybe! In some articles I read on the state of the U.S. economy:

  • The odds of the U.S. falling into a recession are about 50/50.
  • Triggering any U.S. recession could be the combination of higher than normal gas prices, a Federal Reserve bent on controlling inflation (with higher interest rates), and slower economic growth.

But we have seen this drill before:

Are we headed for a recession - Oil and Recession Correlation

Note: an example of oil prices/spikes and recession timelines. The future may vary or repeat!

At home, with inflation nearing a 40-year high, our Bank of Canada finally acted this week. They raised rates by a full 100 basis points (1%).

That’s good, but that’s also going to mean a few things for you if you have a fat variable mortgage to deal with.

The good news is, rates remain historically quite low – our BoC is just catching up after years of inaction.

I’ve been trying to design our portfolio around inflationary hedges for years now and I will continue to do so.

FYI – this is how I’ve been combating inflation including some ideas for you!

Inflation is just one more reason why it’s important to have a well-diversified portfolio. 

As I enjoy travel and time away from the daily grind, I figure if your investments are spread out across different asset classes, geographies and sectors I think you (and I) can weather any near-term inflationary storm. You should consider value stocks, dividend paying stocks, REITs and more to help you fight inflation. You should likely avoid keeping too much cash on the sidelines since current bank/savings rates of return are not likely to keep up – although some cash is always good to keep!

I’m now enjoying some of that cash set aside some time ago on a trip to Scotland, with very little fear for how I’m going to pay for this trip since all savings were set aside months ago.

Glasgow Cathedral, Scotland

Glasgow Cathedral, Scotland.

This is the second time I’ve visited Scotland, the last time was in 2015.

I hope to share more fun pics via my Twitter feed soon.

Have a great weekend and enjoy these reads!


Weekend Reading…

It’s always great to try and make some sense of the markets, thanks MoneySense!

Here is another lesson in compounding power below.

Check out this behaviour/discipline, from a janitor, who amassed an $8 million dollar portfolio.

Thanks to Dividend Growth Investor for the story.

The secret sauce to financial success is simple but not easy:

    • Stay frugal = live within your means.
    • Invest savings at a high rate of return for a long period of time.
    • Invest in companies with durable competitive advantages.
    • Stay invested for decades, without selling.
    • Keep reinvesting those (juicy) dividends along the way.


It was a real pleasure to talk to the FIRE We Go! team of Gean and Kristine recently – here is our chat and bloopers!

Let me know what topics you want me/us to cover in another episode!

Reader question of the week (adapted slightly for the site):

Mark, I struggle with all the noise and advice related to taxable investing, how income is taxed. Can you summarize for me? Thanks so much!

Thanks for your question! Here you go!


Type of distribution


Tax Treatment


Interest is earned on investments such as GICs and bonds.

Fully taxable at the same marginal tax rate as ordinary income, like employment income. 

So, consider using TFSAs and RRSPs if you want to defer or shelter interest income from taxation.

Canadian dividends

Income when you invest in shares of Canadian public corporations that pay dividends.

Preferential tax treatment for individuals through dividend tax credits as either eligible or non-eligible dividends.

Check out my post on the Canadian Dividend Tax Credit (DTC) here.

So, consider owning Canadian dividend paying stocks in a taxable account, after your TFSAs or RRSPs are maxed out of course.

Capital gains

Realized when an investment is sold for more than the adjusted cost based (ACB) of the investment.

Preferential tax treatment as only 50% of a capital gain is taxable.

So, consider investing for capital gains in a taxable account, after your TFSAs or RRSPs are maxed out of course.

Thinking of geo-arbitrage (i.e., saving money by moving to a lower-cost-of-living city or area or country)? Well, Dave from Accidental FIRE has the data from the U.S.

Last but certainly not least, join me online later this month in a live Q&A!

TD Direct Investing - Mark Seed July 27, 2022Join me above in a few weeks (during a day off work of course!) to chat and engage. 

I look forward to sharing much of what I write about on this site with you and others!

Again, have a great weekend!


My name is Mark Seed - the founder, editor and owner of My Own Advisor. As my own DIY financial advisor, I'm looking to start semi-retirement soon, sooner than most. Find out how, what I did, and what you can learn to tailor your own financial independence path. Join the newsletter read by thousands each day, always FREE.

6 Responses to "Weekend Reading – Are we headed for a recession edition"

  1. Are we heading for a recession ? Surely you jest Mark. We already are in a recession, it just takes awhile until the economists state the obvious. Last fall the term transitory inflation, that still makes me laugh. Just can’t make this stuff up.

    Value investing may be coming back, banks are trading at 10x PE as one example. What are your thoughts? I still see some more downside to the market.


    1. You’re probably right David. Yes, I have a “transitory” comment from the economists on Twitter last July 2021 citing they have no idea what they are talking about = this inflationary cycle is hardly transitory.

      I see more downside potentially this year. I hope to be plowing some $$ into the markets soon. Ha.

      Stay well,

  2. Enjoyed watching the interview with Gean and Krsitine they always manage to make me smile.
    as for Scotland Mark it’s beautiful and it’s on my bucket list 🙂 to be honest the whole continent is 🙂 from Spain to Italy Norway Austria Switzerland etc…so much history and so many Castles and Cathedrals that I want to see.
    As for inflation I believe as humans we should be smart and able to adapt our budgets in order to fight it it’s not the first time and won’t be the last time but unfortunately some people who over bought houses for example and overpaid for them on a near zero interest rates not thinking that interest rates won’t stay down for life are going to pay for it, I sold one of my rentals back in March and the very first offer was like 30k over the asking price even though it’s 35yo condo 🙂 I’m glad we did sell because now it would be a lot more challenging to do so for sure.
    Thanks again Mark for this great article.

    1. Thanks Gus!

      Yes, Scotland is nice.:)

      I think if you sold your condo, you should be happy now. Seems like you are simplifying your life. What are you doing with the sale proceeds?


      1. Paid off the remaining balance on the place we currently live in, maxed both our TFSA and helped the kids to max theirs as well ( that’s thanks to reading “Die with Zero”) which it made total sense on this point that why wait till we are long and gone till we give them something when we can give them now and see them enjoying their life.
        Also we put aside some for a two vacations on my bucket list one in September so San Diego.

        1. Very smart Gus – gifting while you can. My parents have about $300k in debt in their 70s so I’m quite the opposite in that I don’t want to have any debt after age 50 other than leveraged investing here and there as needed 🙂

          Two vacations sounds great to me and kudos.

          Replying to you as I travel on the train to Glasgow, Scotland. Cheers!


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