Good luck to financial experts and their predictions

Over the last few weeks I’ve read a few articles where financial experts made some predictions for this year. Along with my little game I thought I’d track their forecasting prowess for 2015.  Here are some predictions I found.

Edward Jones Canada

Stocks – The Jones forecast for 2015 is for mid-single-digit increases based on improved earnings growth in a growing economy.

Me – rather vague, not surprisingly, so I’ll take this as 5% Canadian equity returns to be measured by the ETF XIC that tracks the broad Canadian equity market.

Bonds – The same Jones forecast expects bond returns in 2015 to be the mid to low single digits.

Me – I’ll take this as 3% Canadian bond returns to be measured by the ETF XBB that tracks a diversified selection of investment-grade Government of Canada, provincial, corporate and municipal bonds.

Douglas Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets

U.S. (Federal Reserve) Interest Rates – “the Fed” will raise rates for the first time in more than nine years.

Wall Street Gurus

Below is a list of Wall Street Strategists and their predictions for the 2015 close of the S&P 500 index at the end of the year. At the time of this post, the S&P 500 index is at 2,057.

RBC – 2,325

Wells Fargo – 2,222

BlackRock – 2,160

Goldman Sachs – 2,100

I won’t bother including any oil price predictions since most of the forecasts I read were something to the effect of “oil prices will rebound after Capex…” or “oil prices will remain depressed for the first few quarters as uncertainty…” or “oil prices are poised for…”, well, you get the picture.

Good luck to all experts and amateurs alike in 2015.  I’ll try and report back on this crystal ball process sometime this spring.

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13 Responses to "Good luck to financial experts and their predictions"

  1. I have the same prediction every year:

    1) There will be many predictions.
    2) The predictions will tend to mimic last years results.
    3) Most will get it wrong.
    4) One or two will get is spot on due to dumb luck and they will get there own tv show.


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