…And here is what I actually got right…2016 Predictions – Final Update

Well, here we are…another year gone and new one begins.  Happy New Year again friends.

For the last couple of years, just for kicks, I made some financial predictions by looking into my cloudy crystal ball. Here is a recap of what I thought would happen in 2016 and what actually went down:

1. The Ottawa Senators will make the playoffs.

Nope.  I didn’t come close to getting this prediction right, unfortunately.  The Senators seem to be playing well this year, so I remain optimistic a playoff run in April 2017 is in their future.  I have plans to attend a few games this winter with my dad.

2. The Chicago Blackhawks will win The Stanley Cup.

Wrong again.  Congrats to the Penguins and their win last year.

3. Telus will increase their dividend by 5%.

In May 2016, the TELUS Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.46 Canadian per share.  Then in November 2016, they announced another dividend increase to $0.48 per year.  So, two raises last year for doing nothing but being a shareholder.  I got this prediction right and then some.  I predict two more small dividend increases in 2017 as well.

4. Enbridge will increase their dividend by 5%.

Enbridge has paid dividends for over 63 years. Their annualized dividend is currently $2.12 per share, and has been increased in each of the last 21 years. However, no dividend increase!  I will need to eat these words:  Over the past 11 years the dividend has delivered an average compound annual growth of 14%.  No dividend increase yet but it’s going to happen friends.  Fear not but a dividend increase of 10-15% is in the works for early 2017.  Update:  As I was writing this post this week, Enbridge did in fact increase their dividend by 10%.

5. The Dow will finish the year at 16,500.

It finished at 19,762.  Wow, I didn’t see that coming.

6. Coca-Cola will increase their dividend by 3%.

Bingo.  Back in February 2016, Coca-Cola raised their dividend to $0.35 per share.  This was the 54^th consecutive year they raised their dividend.  I’ll get another raise in a few weeks too.

7. Bonds will have a positive return in 2016, returning 3%, to be measured by iShares ETF XBB.

ETF XBB returned 1.36% in 2016.  It remains a poor time to be in bonds for returns but if you need them for diversification and portfolio stability then that’s good.

8. The TSX will finish the year at 13,000.

It finished at 15,287.  Apparently I was rather pessimistic on equity markets.  Might have been Trump.

9. Oil will finish at $45.

It finished at $53.72.

10. Our dollar will be $0.74, against the U.S. dollar, by the end of 2016.

The dollar finished 2016 at, you guessed it, $0.74.  Bang on.

11. I’ll play more golf this summer (when compared to last summer).

Done!  My game didn’t improve but I had fun and that’s what it’s all about.

12. Royal Bank will increase their dividend by 5%.

Goal!  Although Royal Bank missed street expectations in 2016 they still managed to raise their dividend, twice this year, now providing shareholders with $0.83 per share thanks very much.

The Summary

Some dividend stocks can be rather predictable.  Other market guesses are like darts on a dartboard.

Hope you had fun following along in 2016.  We’ll see what I can think of for 2017.

Mark