2019 Predictions

2019 Predictions

Well, better late than never right?

For the last few years I’ve made various predictions at the beginning of the year, including those about the stock market and certain stocks or funds, by looking into my cloudy crystal ball.

Predictions

Here is a recap of recent predictions including what I got right!

2018 recap

2017 recap

2016 recap

Cutting right to the chase, here is what I think might happen in 2019, financial or otherwise:

  1. Eugene Melynk will finally parter with someone (this year) to re-build Lebreton Flats.

We’re in dire need of a new, modern, downtown hockey area (and more) to re-build this critical parcel of Ottawa land.  I hope the ego of the Ottawa Senators owner doesn’t continue to get in the way of this huge development opportunity for our city.

  1. The Tampa Bay Lightning will win The Stanley Cup.

I figure if I keep saying the same thing, these guys will win, I’ll eventually be right!

  1. Jon Rahm will win The Masters.

Spanish golfers have a flair for the dramatic.  Hardly anything would be bigger for Spanish golf than this win, this April.

  1. The TSX Composite will finish 2019 at 15,425.
  2. The S&P 500 will finish 2019 at 2,705.
  3. I think gold will finish 2019 at $1,320.
  4. Oil will finish 2019 at $57.50 (crude oil that, west Texas tea!)
  5. Our Canadian dollar will finish the year at $0.79.

Not very bullish or optimistic for these selections am I??

  1. Assuming we can stay the course with our investments, we’ll earn > $19,000 in dividend income this calendar year in key accounts.

You can check out my dividend income update from December for the final 2018 tally.

  1. Algonquin Power will increase their dividend by 5% before the end of 2019.

I don’t know when it might happen but I think it will.

Do you make any predictions – other than the stock market will go up, go down, and likely go back up again?  Let me know in a comment. 

I predict I’ll update you on this post in the future…!

Mark

Mark Seed is the founder, editor and owner of My Own Advisor. As my own DIY financial advisor, I've grown our portfolio to over $600,000 now - but there's more work to do! Our next big goal is to own a $1 million investment portfolio for an early retirement. Subscribe and join the journey!

49 Responses to "2019 Predictions"

          1. I don’t have any BAM.A. Waiting to buy some. It is part of my plan to get more US dividend.

            Own BPY and BCE, will be happy to see a raise.

          2. BPY .315 to .33 Annully from 1.26 to 1.32 = 4.76%

            BCE .755 to .7925 Annually 3.02 to 3.17 = 4.96%

            Lloyd, it looks like you got BPY and I got BCE.

          3. Really love how dividends work. It’s a big down day on the market. Who cares when I got $100 raises in total from BPY, BCE and GWO.

            I just need more courage to buy more dividend stocks I guess. Missed the chances during the new year. Patiently waiting for next entry point. I also really need to build up some holdings to pay me dividends in $US.

          4. I agree May. BCE & GWO add retirement cash flow from my unregistered acct. and now with a nice raise.
            BPY & BIP are dripping in TFSA for future years.

            I bought about 35K CDN stocks in Dec/Jan, but I really missed on few I was targeting. I am also waiting patiently on some more CDN and also US, Int. etfs. If they don’t hit I’m fine. Will stay where I am for now.

            Between 35 and 40% of our overall investment income is generated in USD-depending on exchange although none from interlisted or ADR stocks.

          5. BEP.UN tomorrow (Friday)…maybe they’ll match last year at .0225? I kinda doubt it if one looks at the “trend” of the others but hope springs eternal.

            I always look forward to the first week of February. Weather usually sucks and I’ve gots lots of farm paperwork to get done but the Brookfield family can warm it up for us. 🙂

          1. Mark, made me think of my retired neighbour’s comment when they were over for dinner recently. He calls their TFSA’s – Travel Free Savings Accounts!

        1. I did something I never do…I sold 2000 shares of BPY.UN and placed another order to sell another 1000 (not filled yet though). I think/hope this 5.5% jump in stock price is an overreaction. I’ll buy some of it back when it falls but took this opportunity to pick up some BEP.UN to balance out these two a bit.

          Reply
          1. The other 1000 shares actually did sell late in the trading day so 3000 shares were sold in total. That is just over half of what we had in all the accounts. I will watch next week to see if there some correction and buy back. I did use some of the money to pick up 600 BEP.UN so I won’t get the full 3000 shares of BPY back but it gives us a little better balance between the two. I’m not usually trading like this but I saw that $1.55 (6.27%) jump and thought that it might be a little over-the-top. We’ll see.

          2. Why sell? Are you awaiting for a correction? Buy and holder and DRIPper here. No selling BPY for me unless BoD does something stupid like cut the dividend after they just raised it!

          3. Couple of reasons. First we were overweight in BPY so selling some and picking up some BEP balances it out a bit better. We’re still sitting on 2400+shares of BPY so it’s not like we don’t have any. The second is that I think the market is overreacting and it will settle back down. I’ll watch for an entry point around 25.40ish.

  1. you shouldn’t go so far out on a limb with those market predictions mark? i still don’t see what everyone sees in algonguin. bubba will win the masters and pittsburg will win the cup and sid will retire!!!!

    Reply
    1. I can see their portfolio growing over time OR a buyout happening. I think either way investors win and I get paid 4% yield to be invested. I started buying around $10 per share.

      I don’t think the Pens will win again this year but you never know!? Sid is a helluva player for sure.

      Bubba, wow, wouldn’t that be wild eh? That would give him 3 jackets. Crazy good really.

      Reply
  2. Ok, time to have some fun and be rather outrageous:

    The TSX Composite will finish 2019 at 17750.
    The S&P 500 will finish 2019 at 2,895.
    I think gold will finish 2019 at $1195.
    Oil will finish 2019 at $65.00 (crude oil that, west Texas tea!)
    Our Canadian dollar will finish the year at $0.795

    Reply
    1. Gary and May: I am not serious about this. I am usually very conservative with my crystal ball, but this time I thought I’d really try and shoot for the moon. I posted these on a couple of other sites Jan 10. We’ve certainly shot up a lot since end of year but maybe its dead cat bounce.

      Yes, if it happened we’d all be pretty happy. If we did get there I wonder if there would be a mass exodus or a lot of people piling in. My guess is the the latter- buy high sell low. I read there is still a lot of money on the sidelines.

      Reply
      1. Re: Money on the sidelines. For sure, I have friends waiting for market down for quite a few years now. I didn’t wait about one and half years ago, but I did not deploy all my cash either.

        Reply
        1. That has to be tough for your friends waiting for years now to get in. I’ve been fully invested to my plan but…..

          I bought recently to rebalance with considerable equity drop from highs. Now I am also looking to increase equity weighting a bit overall now – 5 years into retirement and with many years spending reserve in FI. If the prices get a little better.

          Reply
          1. I bought a little bit in December and looking back, although BPY dropped quite a bit after my purchase, now it’s back with quite a bit of price appreciation too. I guess I have to remind myself in long run anything I buy today is a bargain when market is down and I am fearful.

        2. Interesting how some folks invest May. I keep some money (emergency fund) but I prefer to be invested as much as possible – money making money is a good thing. I’ve learned this over the last 10 years as a DIY investor.

          Reply
  3. Dito for BCE/BIP/BPY/BEP managed to add to BIP/BEP before earnings so so far a good start to 2019. Did also buy everything but the kitchen sink over the holidays and feel pretty good about that. Managed to push up my average yield to 4% and my annual dividend income to >$9500 already (10K target), eagerly awaiting what TD and BNS have in store . Also holding a fair sized cash reserve for the next selloff prices too high to deploy much capital so just dripping.

    Predictions:
    TSX and SP500 will end up flat-ish not much growth come 2H 2019 except for some niches (renewable s)
    Don’t see oil going anywhere unless production is cut which is unlikely given the widespread addiction to that stuff, so keep at ~$55
    CAD is tied to oil so expect it stick to current FX ~$0.76
    AQN will give us a 5% increase

    Given I suck as an oracle we’ll probably end up with 20% gains, $80 oil and our CAD at par.

    Reply
    1. Good predictions Ben. We’ll see how your crystal balls work out this year. 🙂 I like your call on owning TD, BNS and the same Brookfield suite of companies. Those guys are all dividend studs and that’s the reason I own them all and don’t intend to sell anytime soon. I wonder if TD will increase their dividend soon?

      Reply

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