2018 Predictions – Final Update

2018 Predictions – Final Update

Well, here we are…another year gone!  Poof!

Happy New Year and welcome to 2019!

Happy New Year

For the last few years I’ve made some financial predictions by looking into my cloudy crystal ball.

Here are the recaps from previous years:

2017 recap

2016 recap

2015 recap

2014 recap

2013 recap

With 2018 now in the rearview mirror let’s take a look at some of my correct predictions (and big misses) from the year that was:

  1. The Ottawa Senators will NOT make the playoffs.

Correct!

Heck no, not even close.  I went to a few games late in the 2017-2018 season (after watching the Penguins and other teams in late 2017) but last year was an absolute disaster.  It’s still very tough being a Sens fan this year – with ownership basically driving the organization into the ground.

Sadly, I fear things are going to get worse before they get better.  I just hope the team stays in Ottawa…

  1. The Tampa Bay Lightning will win The Stanley Cup.

Wrong.

While I did (and still do) feel they are the best overall team in the NHL again this year, it was good to see the Capitals win and Ovi finally get a championship ring.

Did anyone ever party harder than Ovi in the summer of 2018?

  1. Telus will increase their dividend by 5%.

Correct!

In recent years, Telus’ Board of Directors announced they intend to grow their dividend year after year.  They stuck to their word.  Image courtesy of Telus dividend page:

  1. The S&P 500 will finish the year at 2,970.

Wrong.  This index finished around 2,507.  Stocks have been on a consistent plunge of late.  We’ll see what 2019 brings!

  1. The TSX will finish the year at 18,750.
  2. Gold will finish the year at $1,400.
  3. Oil will finish the year at $75.

Wrong.  Wrong.  Wrong.  Not even close.

8. Our dollar will finish the year at $0.82, against the U.S. dollar, by year’s end.

Wrong.  Our dollar is diving hard.  Too bad – I need to exchange some money for an international trip soon!

9. All big-five Canadian banks will increase their dividend at least once in 2018.

I wrote about buying more of these stocks in 2018.  I did actually.

During the year for the big-five:

  • In March, TD Bank increased their dividend by almost 12%.
  • In February, Royal Bank increased their dividend by about 3%.  They hiked their dividend again this summer.
  • Bank of Nova Scotia increased their dividend twice in 2018.  They seem to be increasing their dividend every other quarter for the last three years.
  • Bank of Montreal wasn’t going to be outdone – they also increased their dividend twice in 2018; up 8% over the last year.
  • Finally, CIBC also increased their dividends (twice) this year.

Clearly whatever the Canadian market did or did not do – if you were a big bank shareholder you got seriously rewarded.  Nailed it.  (Disclosure:  I own all these stocks.)

You can see more of what I own and our dividend income journey here – chart posted below prior to our December 2018 update. 

  1. Kinder Morgan (KMI:US) will increase their dividend.

Correct!

While I continue to own a few U.S. stocks like JNJ and PG in my RRSP my U.S. stock list is getting shorter over time because I’m using U.S.-listed ETFs inside my RRSP to invest for extra diversification.

You can read about what I own and some of my favourite low-cost ETFs to invest in here.

That said.  I killed this one. KMI increased their dividend by a whopping 60% this past year.  Are their dividends sustainable?  No idea.  I no longer own this stock because of my shift into U.S. ETFs.

  1. I hope my wife and I can achieve both of these financial goals.

Completed – correct!  Post to come.

In brief, we had two simple goals for 2018:

  1. maximizing contributions to our TFSAs, and 
  2. killing debt.

In January 2018 we maximized contributions to our TFSAs.  They are fully funded and invested with Canadian dividend paying stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Throughout the year, we reduced our mortgage principal through our established bi-weekly accelerated debt payments by over $20,000.  We’re very happy about that.  If we continue to do that, we’ll be debt free in another few years.

12. Rory McIlroy will win The Masters.

Wrong.  Patrick Reed won but I’m not a fan; would have MUCH rather seen Rory complete the career grand slam.  I think he’ll do it in 2019.  That’s my guess.

Another year of predictions is coming – stay tuned.  I hope you had fun following along in 2018.

Mark

Mark Seed is the founder, editor and owner of My Own Advisor. As my own DIY financial advisor, I've grown our portfolio to over $500,000 - but there's more work to do! Our next big goal is to own a $1 million investment portfolio for an early retirement. Subscribe and join the journey!

7 Responses to "2018 Predictions – Final Update"

  1. 4 for 10. Maybe 2019 will be a better year in more ways than one!

    Great job on savings, dividend growth and especially on debt reduction. That’s a pile of dough reducing the mortgage and it looks like you’ve really got the bit between your teeth. Wowzers.

    To fill in the 2018 dividend raises! –
    RY 7.7%
    BNS 7.6%
    CM 4.6%

    Looking forward to the 2019 predictions.

    Reply
    1. Well, the mortgage was reduced by $20K including the lump sum payments. I wish we could afford to put more down but only so much we can do!

      Yes, some 2019 predictions coming!

      Mark

      Reply
  2. Happy 2019 Mark, looks like we are off to an interesting start. Can’t speak to hockey or golf sorry.but scoring 4/10 is probably better then most will do so well done! Looking forward to the 2019 edition.

    My only prediction is that things will not go as envisioned best stick to the only thing that works: increase income + reduce debt.

    Things to look forward to:
    – our next mortgage update, we should finally be down to a 5 digit amount (yah) planning to reduce our mortgage by 15K-20K PY and be “free” in 4-5 years
    – a growing stream of dividend income with many Q1 raises and DRIP’s on the way, target >10K of annual income by year end
    – finish transitioning, re-balancing and reallocating our investments focus on DGI and Indexing (my 2018 to do but somehow 365 days were not enough)
    – ongoing market volatility, added significantly to our main positions over the Holidays (TD, BNS, CNR, T, BIP, BEP)

    Ben

    Reply
    1. Great to hear from you Ben.

      You’re smart to stick to things that work well for you: I like your approach = “increase income + reduce debt.” A good recipe for me too!

      -We hope to be mortgage free by age 50 – that’s <5 years for me. I’ll race you!
      -Earning > $10K per year in dividends would be very juicy. Keep me posted on that. I intend to buy more TD, RY, BNS, AQN and FTS…post coming soon. If CNR stays low, I might consider that for my RRSP but I’m trying to buy more U.S. assets in that account over time.

      Good luck Ben and keep up what sounds like solid work.

      Mark

      Reply
  3. Good stuff, predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.

    Predicting where markets are going? Not so good.

    Predicting where dividends might go? Check, check and check.

    Yup, glad to see my dividends come in, and increase.

    Thanks, Happy New Year.

    Reply

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