2017 Predictions – Final Update

Posted on December 30, 2017 by | 34 Comments

2017 Predictions – Final Update

Welcome to my final update for my 2017 predictions.  I hope you had a great year.

Back in January 2017 I made a few predictions hoping I would nail some of them.

Predictions

Let’s see how I did now that 2017 is almost in our collective past.

  1. The Ottawa Senators will make the playoffs.

Bingo!  And then some…  My Senators came within one goal of reaching the Stanley Cup final last June.  Damn those Penguins…

  1. The Washington Capitals will The Stanley Cup.

Nope, wrong.  Congrats to the Pens, again.

  1. BCE will increase their dividend by at least 3%.

Bingo.  BCE increased their dividend by just over 5% in February 2017.

  1. The Dow will finish the year at 21,200.

Wow, WAY off.  The Dow finished the year at 24,719.  To put that gain into perspective, if you owned a U.S.-listed index fund that covered most of the U.S. market you would have enjoyed returns of about 20% this year. Impressive.

  1. The TSX will finish the year at 17,100.

Close but not quite.  The TSX finished the year at 16,209.

  1. Bank of Nova Scotia will increase their dividend by at least 3%.

BNS increased their dividend by about 2.7%.  (I should add I expect another 3% dividend increase sometime in 2018.)

  1. Gold will be worth $1,200.

Not quite.  Gold finished the year at $1,309.

  1. Canadian Utilities will increase their dividend by at least 3%. 

I should have posted my original article when I planned!   I got this one.  On January 12, 2017 CU hiked its dividend by 10%.  You can see their dividend history here.

  1. Phil Mickelson will win the Masters.

Wrong but great to see Sergio win.  The Masters remains one of my favourite tournaments to watch every single year.  Thanks to my neighbour I finally got to see Augusta in person that week.  That place is off the charts.

  1. Fortis will increase their dividend by at least 5%.

Like clockwork, investors can expect a dividend increase from Fortis every year.   I nailed this one.  They increased their dividend by over 6% in October 2017.  Shareholders can likely expect another 5% (or so) raise in late-2018.

  1. Oil will be $65 per barrel.

Oil started to make a recovery in late-2017.  Oil finished the year at $60.

  1. Our Canadian dollar will be $0.75 compared to the US dollar.

I missed this one, and was surprised.  Our dollar finished the year over $0.79.

  1. Procter & Gamble will increase their dividend by at least 3%.

P&G increased their dividend by that very amount, 3%, back in April 2017.  I suspect another 3% dividend hike will occur before the end of April 2018.

  1. Brookfield Renewable Energy will increase their dividend by at least 3%.

Brookfield is targeting 5% to 9% annual growth in cash distributions in the coming years.  Staying true to their word they increased their dividends by 5% in early February.

  1. Wells Fargo will increase their dividend by at least 3%.

Wells Fargo increased their dividend by about 2.6% earlier this year.  Correct when you round up!

Those were my specific predictions for 2017.  Not bad overall.  Let’s see how 2018 plays out.  Happy New Year to you and best wishes.

What did you see happening in 2017?   What do you see happening in 2018?

My name is Mark Seed - the founder, editor and owner of My Own Advisor. As my own DIY financial advisor, I've surpassed my goal and now investing beyond the 7-figure portfolio to start semi-retirement with. Find out how, what I did, and what you can learn to tailor your own financial independence path. Join the newsletter read by thousands each day, always FREE.

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34 Responses to "2017 Predictions – Final Update"

  1. Leo T. Ly · Edit

    Happy New Year Mark. These are some pretty bold predictions. I am not in the prediction game, but I do enjoy it when certain predictions come true, Especially the dividend increases.

    As usual, I would expect the utility, banking and telecommunications sector to increase their dividends by an average of 5%. I am hoping the TSX and the S and P increase a modest 7%-10%. Very boring stuff. If that’s predictions come true, we will all be in great financial shape.

    Reply
    1. Mark · Edit

      I like it. I treat is as a game not something to avoid or worry about. Life will happen whether we predict things or not. I’m hoping for a big 10%+ year from the TSX. We’ll see if it happens.

      Reply
  2. Mordko · Edit

    In 2017 USD lost almost 7% vs CAD. In CAD terms the gain was <<20%. In the year when everything went up, US ETFs did well but ETFs for EM and Developed markets outside NA did a lot better.

    Reply
        1. Mark · Edit

          Very impressive – “…2017 return of my portfolio was 13.9% as calculated using the Bogleheads wiki’s personal returns spreadsheet. The money-weighted return was 14.6%.”

          I recall my CDN dividend stocks were up about 9% last year. That was inline with XIC but that’s not surprising to me since I own similar top-15 stocks as does XIC.

          I recall my USD RRSP was up close to 15% last year, largely supported by ETF VYM. The CDN side of my RRSP was up about the same as my non-reg. and TFSA.

          Overall a great year and I would love to see more of the same but I suspect the tide will turn in 2018, later this year. I could be wrong of course and indexers don’t really care either way 🙂 Continued success to you.

          Reply
  3. Mike · Edit

    It is the beginning of a new year. Time to set new goals – Get out of your comfort zone and make this a better year! I am personally happy 2017 has ended. Had a few set backs with my health and business. But – that did not stop me from using my single best asset to turn 2017 around in the last few months. No matter what people think of me – say about me – or tell me (the doctor) – I don’t really care! I have one asset that has always been there for me – time and time again. * My MIND * In other words “My Self”.
    While others continue to follow each other’s best practices – to normal results – I move differently – think differently – and focus on obtaining my goals. In late 2017 – I closed my business, cut down my expenses and made changes towards a healthier lifestyle. These changes created more time – less stress and set me up for new heights to be reached in 2018. My goal this year is to make 1.2 million usd from 25K. This may seem impossible – crazy – not likely and down right stupid! But – my mind is open – clear and ready for the challenge.
    I have to confess – I am posting on this blog my goal – so that I can be accountable to myself. By putting this in writing – seems to make it real for me. You don’t know me and probably don’t care – but just knowing their is an audience that thinks this is impossible – crazy and not doable – drives me to reach a goal I know I can obtain. Set a high goal for yourself and work everyday towards achieving it. You do not need to be smart, educated, loved or good looking to achieve it!. You will need a little Luck – but that is simple to create! Go for it – I am!

    Reply
    1. Mark · Edit

      Your health (and mind) is your greatest asset…I wish you all the success possible in 2018 with it.

      You plan to make $1.2M from $25,000?

      It does seem rather impossible unless you have a printing press in your basement 🙂

      How is that going to occur Mike? Do share when you can.

      Reply
  4. GYM · Edit

    My husband is a huge Washington Capitals fan and he was pretty pissed off the Penguins won (again).

    You were pretty spot on with your 2017 predictions!

    Happy New Year and best for 2018!

    Reply
  5. Mike · Edit

    Pot stocks to increase 20-25% in first 3 months of year. TSX to go past 17,000 by June. Markets to have a pull back last 1/2 of year. Leafs & Jets to make the playoffs. Sens & Vancouver flop!

    Reply
  6. SST · Edit

    Mark — while not prediction related, do your website analytics give you the most read/most commented posts of 2017?

    Would be an interesting insight into what captured people’s focus and maybe what your readers would like in 2018.

    Hope 2017 saw everyone healthier, wealthier, and more wise. If not, there’s always next year. 😉 Happy New Year!

    Reply
    1. Mark · Edit

      Thanks for asking. Some of my top articles in 2017 were related to:
      -top ETFs
      -review of my dividends page
      -do you need $1 million to retire well?
      -ETFs page
      -RRSP withdrawal strategies
      -monthly income article

      No doubt I could see more of the same in 2018 and I intend to cover all those subjects and some more.

      All the best for 2018 to you. Stay safe cycling this year!

      Reply
  7. shredder007 · Edit

    Interesting…some sport predictions, some financials inc gold predictions, oil and currency predictions…luckily still a politics prediction free zone
    I thought Lance Stroll should be F1 Rookie of the Year …tough start to his racing career in F1 but he did find his groove…or others stopped crashing into him and one race, he finished on the podium. AWESOME Last 2 races he had to use an older spec engine that was down on power otherwise he likely would of finished in the Top Ten points wise. Now that Massa has retired (again)..wonder who his Williams Team partner driver will be?

    Reply
  8. Kevin · Edit

    Also looking forward to some 2018 predictions!

    I’m hoping the Winnipeg Jets make the playoffs in 2018 and small increases in commodities and stock exchanges, a unicorn year of sorts.

    Also, right now Team Canada is looking good at up 2-0 in the Final after 2 periods of the Spengler Cup for a 3-peat tournament win! I hope they can seal the deal.

    Reply
  12. Lloyd · Edit

    lol…Too many variables to make any kind of prediction for 2018. In order to make a forecast one would need some variables to remain constant or at least follow a set pattern (think Sunrise/Sunset). We have nothing like that in 2018 to base a prediction on. Similar to flying through some bad weather, I’m going to close my eyes, tighten my seat belt, hold on and hope for the best.

    I wish all a happy, and hopefully prosperous, New Year.

    Reply
        1. Mark · Edit

          Sure..which ETF or link?

          VTI would have earned you >20% last year:
          https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0970&FundIntExt=INT&ps_disable_redirect=true#tab=1

          VYM, another fav. low-cost ETF of mine, >16% last year:
          https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0923&ps_disable_redirect=true#tab=1

          The advantage of buying a U.S.-listed ETF is you can enjoy the currency swings – take advantage of them. Buying and holding a CDN listed ETF that holds U.S. stocks and international stocks is also more expensive because of withholding taxes.
          https://www.myownadvisor.ca/indexing/

          Using a CDN-listed ETF is simple for sure but sometimes convenience comes at a cost with investing.

          Happy 2018!

          Reply

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