2016 Predictions Summer Update

I enjoy predictions, I treat them as entertainment.  I had some fun with my 2015 predictions and I actually got a few of them right.

Many months ago I predicted the financial markets would be a wild ride in 2016.  It’s actually been a decent uphill climb since the beginning of the year – but the year isn’t over yet!  What stocks would raise their dividends in 2016?  How would our dollar finish this year?  Here was my forecast for 2016 and where things stand today.

  1. The Ottawa Senators will make the playoffs.

Nope.  I didn’t come close to getting this prediction right, unfortunately.  With new head coach Guy Boucher in town now, the Senators should be able to turn the page on an old chapter and start a new one for the 2016-2017 campaign.  At least Sens fans like me are hoping so.

  1. The Chicago Blackhawks will win The Stanley Cup.

Wrong again.  Did you have Sid the Kid and his Pens on your Stanley Cup shortlist at the Christmas break?  I doubt it and neither did I.

  1. Telus will increase their dividend by 5%.

Finally a layup!  In May 2016, the TELUS Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.46 Canadian per share, payable to shareholders like me (coming soon) on July 4.  TELUS intends to keep increasing their dividend annually in the range of 7 to 10% from 2017 through to the end of 2019.

  1. Enbridge will increase their dividend by 5%.

Enbridge has paid dividends for over 63 years. Their annualized dividend is currently $2.12 per share, and has been increased in each of the last 21 years. Over the past 11 years the dividend has delivered an average compound annual growth of 14%.  No dividend increase yet but it’s going to happen friends.

  1. The Dow will finish the year at 16,500.

At the time of this post the Dow is around 18,432.  Impressive but I didn’t see it coming.

  1. Coca-Cola will increase their dividend by 3%.

Coke is it.  Back in February 2016, Coca-Cola raised their dividend to $0.35 per share.  This was the 54th consecutive year they raised their dividend.

  1. Bonds will have a positive return in 2016, returning 3%, to be measured by iShares ETF XBB.

At the time of this post the ETF XBB has returned about 4.4%.

  1. The TSX will finish the year at 13,000.

At the time of this post our TSX index is about 14,582.

  1. Oil will finish at $45.

It might but it’s lower than that now.

  1. Our dollar will be $0.74, against the U.S. dollar, by the end of 2016.

Due to Brexit and other macro factors, it’s hard to know how our dollar will finish the year but for now, it’s past my target trading close to $0.77.

  1. I’ll play more golf this summer (when compared to last summer).

So far, so good.  Actually this post is a good reminder to call the golf course and make sure I have a tee time for Men’s Night.

  1. Royal Bank will increase their dividend by 5%.

Yes and no. Although Royal Bank missed street expectations earlier this year they still managed to raise their dividend by three per cent (not 5%) to $0.81 per share.

Another five months to go folks – let’s see how things shake down.

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13 Responses to "2016 Predictions Summer Update"

  1. Dog put economists on this world to make weather forecasters look good.

    Suffice to say, I don’t have a clue as to what is going to happen. 🙂

  2. I have seen some serious increases in my portfolio from the rise in the price of some of my long term holdings (Roger’s Sugar and Enbridge Income Fund are two examples).

    I have been hearing opinions that things might drop and I am considering selling some of my best dividend payers now while they are up in value with an eye toward buying back in when there is some sort of a pull back. Would you consider selling for a profit if you think there is going to be a pull back?

    1. Personally, I intend to own these stocks for the long-haul. That means, no selling for the foreseeable future but I can understand why some investors wish to take profits while you can.

      The question I always ask myself on these things is: where would I put the profits to work?

      1. I have time to wait for a pull back. I can use my profits to buy a larger amount of shares.

        The stocks I am considering selling are up an amount equal to 3 years worth of dividend payments. As long as I can buy back in before the 3 year mark I am not out any dividend earnings.

        Will the bull continue to run or will it run out of steam? As someone who doesn’t make a lot of money at my day job I need to squeeze every extra dollar out of a stock that I can. Waiting and holding will earn me regular dividends but selling might be a way to earn more than that.

        1. The thing is, at least for me, I have no idea when a “pull back” is going to happen and/or how big that might be. For this reason, I basically invest money when I have it, at least $2000 or so to keep my transaction costs low. I don’t worry about anything else.

          The next batch of new (RRSP) money in a few months, because it takes me some time to save, is likely going into indexed funds.


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