2015 Financial Predictions – October Update

As you might already know from earlier this year, just for kicks, I made some financial predictions by looking into my cloudy crystal ball. Here is a recap of what I think might happen in 2015 and where I’m at with some of my predictions.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average will finish the year at 19,400.

It opened 2015 at 17,823.07. At the time of this post it is 17,215.97.

  • The S&P/TSX Composite will finish the year at 15,700.

It opened 2015 at 14,635.07.  At the time of this post it is 13,838.10.

  • Our Canadian Dollar will finish the year at $0.85 compared to the US Dollar, relatively flat for the year.

It opened 2015 at $0.848.  At the time of this post it is $0.77.  I’m not even close…

The following Canadian companies will increase their dividend at least once in 2015:

  • TransCanada Pipelines (TRP)

In February, TRP increased their dividend by 8%.

  • Telus (T)

In May, T increased their dividend by over 10%.

  • Canadian Utilities (CU)

In January, CU raised their dividend by 10%.

  • TD Bank (TD)

Although the CEO expected a “tough” 2015, TD Bank decided to increase their dividend by almost 9% earlier this year.

  • Fortis (FTS)

Last time on this site, I wrote “we will probably need to wait until fall 2015 to see if Fortis increases their dividend so stay tuned.”  Well, late-September, Fortis raised their dividend by 10%.

In addition to my financial predictions I’m also tracking the predictions of some financial gurus.

Here are their predictions:

Edward Jones Canada

Stocks – The Jones forecast for 2015 is for mid-single-digit increases based on improved earnings growth in a growing economy.

Me – rather vague, not surprisingly, so I’ll take this as 5% Canadian equity returns to be measured by the ETF XIC that tracks the broad Canadian equity market.

At the time of this post, ETF XIC is down year to date.

Bonds – The same Jones forecast expects bond returns in 2015 to be the mid to low single digits.

Me – I’ll take this as 3% Canadian bond returns to be measured by the ETF XBB that tracks a diversified selection of investment-grade Government of Canada, provincial, corporate and municipal bonds.

At the time of this post, ETF XBB is barely up year to date.

Douglas Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets

U.S. (Federal Reserve) Interest Rates – “the Fed” will raise rates for the first time in more than nine years.

So far Mr. Porter, no rate increase from “the Fed”.

Wall Street Gurus

Below is a list of Wall Street Strategists and their predictions for the 2015 close of the S&P 500 index at the end of the year.  Just so you know, at the time of this post, the S&P 500 index is at 2,033.

RBC – 2,325

Wells Fargo – 2,222

BlackRock – 2,160

Goldman Sachs – 2,100

The summary?  Although there is time in the year yet, I believe nobody can predict the financial future with any accuracy.  Don’t let “pros” fool you.  Then again, some dividend increases are rather predictable. This is why we save, invest and own some blue-chip stocks for income.  We reinvest all dividends paid.  We also own some low-cost ETFs for diversification that focus on capital appreciation.  That’s it.  We keep it simple my friends.  We’re 1/3 of the way towards our investing goal.

I’ll try and report back on this crystal ball process before the end of 2015 to see how things played out.

Did you make any financial predictions for 2015?

My name is Mark Seed - the founder, editor and owner of My Own Advisor. As my own DIY financial advisor, I'm looking to start semi-retirement soon, sooner than most. Find out how, what I did, and what you can learn to tailor your own financial independence path. Join the newsletter read by thousands each day, always FREE.

9 Responses to "2015 Financial Predictions – October Update"

  1. Another interesting post. It makes me feel better about jumping back into the markets in July.

    I was up $20K in 3 weeks but then came August and a $53K reversal of fortune ? . It’s OK as today I am only down $10K after I take in account the fees I have saved from ETF DIY investing and dividends and interest paid.

    Better to be invested and stick to your plan.

    1. I agree Marko. Stay invested, time in the market is your friend. You already know that approaching early retirement. You can certainly lose more being out the market, trying to time it, than staying in it.

  2. ” some dividend increases are rather predictable. This is why we save, invest and own some blue-chip stocks for income. We reinvest all dividends paid. ” That’s the easy part. If you want to play Guess, try to predict the % increase.

    “We also own some low-cost ETFs for diversification that focus on capital appreciation.” I look at etf’s as trying to be a Jack of all trades, but master of none. 60% or 70% of the stocks are one you really don’t want but think they provide diversification. Also often the top 10 are not the best but ones they want higher returns from.

    1. I suppose I could try the dividend hikes for 2016? 🙂

      Yes, I’ve read that as well Cannew, re: the top-10 are not always the best from a total return perspective since they’ve already had their recent run-up; their market value is high and thus cap weighted in the index. Then again, in Canada, in the top-10 of XIC you always have a few banks, Enbridge, a telco like BCE, a railroad and a life insurance company. I’m more than happy to own those for the next few decades and get for doing so.

  3. Predictions can be fun when not taken seriously. Otherwise in almost all cases they’re meaningless.

    I made some predictions on CMF for fun but would have to go back to see what they were. Maybe at the end of the year.

    Keeping it simple in investing is good.

    1. These are just predictions. I would report them whether I was right or not. I think some investors take this stuff rather seriously! I’m not sure where the predictions are in CMF of late. I know I’m bombing on those….


Post Comment