2013 Financial Predictions Update

Earlier this year I wrote about 10 things I thought we would see in 2013.  As we approach the halfway mark this year, I thought I’d reflect on how close my calls were.

1. The S&P/TSX Composite Index will finish the year at 13,100.

As of June 16, 2013 the S&P/TSX sits at 12,187.

2. The Dow Jones will finish the year at 13,900.

So far the Dow has blown this mark out of the water, now at 15,070.

3. With renewed focus on Asia markets, RIM is the comeback business story of the year and makes the cover of Canadian Business Magazine at some point to prove it.

RIM has had a nice comeback in 2013 but I have yet to see them on the cover of CB magazine unless I forgot about that.

4. Crude Oil will finish the year at around $98 per barrel.

At the time of this post light crude oil is hovering right around that mark.

5. The Canadian Dollar will finish the year at $0.97 against the U.S. Dollar.

Recently, our dollar closed just a bit higher.

6. Speaking of cents, nobody misses the Canadian penny.

I don’t.  Although I do keep plenty around the house in a large jar for Rummoli games.

7. Canadian REITs, measured by iShares XRE performance, will deliver 10%+ return.

Real Estate Investment Trusts are running just above par this year.  Year-to-date return for XRE is about 0.3%.  I’m not worried, I’ll continue to own REITs.

8. The following U.S. companies will announce dividend hikes this year:  Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and Emerson Electric.

  • On February 21, 2013, Coca-Cola announced a dividend hike of 10%.
  • On April 25, 2013, Johnson & Johnson announced a dividend hike of over 8%.
  • On April 15, 2013, Procter & Gamble announced a dividend hike of 7%.
  • Nothing yet on Emerson Electric.

9. The following Canadian companies will announce dividend hikes this year:  TD Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Enbridge and Telus.

  • On February 28, 2013, TD Bank announced a dividend hike of 5%.
  • On March 5, 2013, Bank of Nova Scotia announced a dividend hike of 5%.
  • Nothing yet on Enbridge.
  • On May 9, 2013, Telus announced a dividend hike of over 11%.

10. Canadian bonds, measured by iShares XBB performance, will deliver 5%+ return.

XBB, a low-cost ETF that tracks the diverse DEX Universe Bond Index is running rather flat this year.  Year-to-date return is about 0.2%.

What do you make of my financial predictions?  Did you make any such predictions this year?

3 Responses to "2013 Financial Predictions Update"

  1. I predicted that whatever funds I put our new work RRSP contributions into would fall in value. Of the 3 choices we made, 1 is down, 1 is up and 1 is flat.

    I predicted BNS would return to the price I bought it at last year. It did. Then it began to plummet again.

    These are just two of many examples of why I am not a source of useful predictions!

    Strangely enough, 2 stores near me were still accepting and returning pennies in change last month. (a Dollarama and a Walmart Photocentre.) Perhaps the penny is not so much dead as resting and pining for the fjords.


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