Peter Schiff, President, Euro Pacific Capital:
Predicted: Gold prices could reach $5,000/ounce by the end of 2012.
Actual: By end of 2012, just under $1700/ounce.
Jim Cramer, CNBC pundit, former fund manager and Wall Street stock guru:
Predicted: At the end of 2011, encouraged investors to avoid bank stocks in 2012.
Actual: One of the best-performing U.S. sectors in 2012; the U.S. bank index was up around 30% year-end.
David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist, Gluskin Sheff & Associates, Inc. and former Chief North American Economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Predicted: S&P 500 would drop back to 500 at some point and a “5,000 Dow” is possible in next couple of years.
Actual: Nowhere near close with the S&P 500 prediction and who knows with the Dow between now and 2016. Time will tell.
More recently David said earlier this year, “I think it will be a flat year for the broad equity markets in 2013.” Well, those following the broad-equity U.S. market know it’s WAY up year-to-date. Maybe David was referring to European markets.
I’m nowhere near as intelligent as Peter, Jim or David but I do know the stock market moves in cycles. The market moves higher, lower, shoots up and then corrects. If anyone makes the same prediction often enough and long enough they’ll eventually get their predictions right. I’ve been calling for sunny weather for days now. Guess what? It’s gorgeous outside.
I think most financial news is largely counterproductive. If you want to be a successful investor I suggest you tune out the financial experts as much as you can.